Wettervortrag Meteo-Parapente

so, thank you for being here
tonight just like Sisi said I’m very happy to be
here… we were traveling with my wife and we had this idea: why not stop at the
local clubs meet people… because that’s the only way
to travel for real… and so I had this idea why not go here and share a
little bit of what I’m doing since 2012 so tonight I’m here for several reasons:
the first one is to meet you to make a little bit of publicity for my
website of course, but also to share some knowledge that you will not find on
the Internet and to get some feedback because
it’s always interesting to when I’m explaining to you I understand also
things about my website and …. so, first before talking too much about flying I
want to explain some things to you about what is a forecast. Because we have
plenty of forecasts everywhere, plenty of websites about weather, but only a few of
us knows exactly what’s behind So I think this is very interesting
information and that is what I want to share with you tonight.
And then later I will explain you more about how this website is born and how to use it for
flying. So if at any moment you have question you can just ask because it’s
like an open discussion we’re not at school – I failed at school – just ask, we
are talking together I hope you will enjoy it!
Okay so what is forecast: it starts with a picture so we take a picture of the earth at a single
moment, with plenty of devices like satellites, weather station’s, balloon soundings, … because we want to know exactly what is happening right now. And
then … so this picture is called the initial conditions for forecasts, or
sometimes you can read on some websites analysis.. so how it works: it’s just like when
you are driving you car and you have your GPS on, so your GPS knows what is your
speed, your direction, and then you enter into a tunnel and the GPS link is lost.
But still your GPS can try to guess where you are a few minutes later with
more or less success. So this is exactly the same for doing weather forecasts. But
instead of having a single car we have plenty of small cars… so let’s call this
the atmosphere and we know a little bit more about this… so we have the
speed, temperature, pressure, humidity and also we have some more local details
like the topography like the land use which is: is there a forest, or city here, or
mountains, of the beach, of the water, .. and some other things like the Sun heating
everything… so we take the earth, we cut it in small pixels – both, for the surface and
the atmosphere, and in every single pixel we will do a lot of computation. So the
first computation that we do is the car and tunnel thing we we want to know
what is the next position. for this we use quite complicated equations. So this
is a basis of all the… *laughs* … this is the basis equation of all the free dynamics
and plenty of things and this is one of the greatest mystery of mathematics and
if you can find a single solution for this you are will be Nobel prized. But
still it tells us: okay we were here, we had some speed, so next time we are here.
But it’s not everything we need: we need more things, more details about … ok we
are not only about single particle moving, we also have the Sun heating …
doing some interaction with… we got the Sun, the ground gets hot,
it makes a cloud, so plenty of physical processes, that are simulated into the
model and also we have more information about for example okay what it was
raining yesterday so now the soil is full of moisture ,so for the forcast of
tomorrow we will take this moisture into account, so all those process they are
computed a lot for every single small pixel, and we do it a lot of time so we
got our initial picture and we have try to guess where was the car 20 seconds
later so, we have the new position we know that the sun
has made this car maybe a little bit warmer and then we calculate what is
happening 20 seconds later and 20 seconds later and this-this-this… for
three days or 15 days of the best models so … in my model is about 20
second but in some models it’s 2 seconds so it’s a lot of computation and that is
what when why we need super big computers to to do forecasting so this
is not mine obviously could be maybe it will be in a
few years yeah so this is how we make broadcast
any question I have no idea what my wife is a version actually ok and what is
funny is that hokay we got this picture we had made a lot of computations but if
you change a little bit a few pixel in the picture the result
will be completely different so you could have plenty of different results
for those forecast and the obvious way would be to say ok we have many of
results for the same forecaster so probably this is the best one but it’s
not we have no idea if this one or this one or this one is a good one because
you are taking this picture you are trying to guess where you are in the
tunnel but maybe the model was not detailed enough to see that pig was
crossing the Horde just before you entered into the tunnel
so you never went into the tumour you were just tumbling away because you hit
the pig so it is exactly the same for weather forecasting so even if you
we are never happy about forecasting and we are insulting the ways of guys like
the incompetent people but even with a lot a lot of science and computing
mathematics we are not we never know what could happen we try only to guess
ok so now I’m pretty sure you have seen those names before of some of them so
this is a lot of different weather models you can find on the Internet
and now we I will talk to you a little bit about those models so first we have
what we call the general circulation models so those are models that predict
the weather on a global scale ok we want to know if there will be some jet stream
between the u.s. and the Europe we want to know if there will be a low pressure
coming or not so the this is basically the weather you have on TV like ok cold
weather in the north and some rain in the south of the country regional
countrywide occasional weather and we have several models so this is big
computation it’s it’s all almost always going by your country so for example the
most famous is the GFS model which is you you have heard about this one
because it is the the model which is run by the US administration 90% of websites
are getting used whether from this model because it was the only free model
available until 2 or 3 years ago and the other one was super expensive
or bad guy you have some water so I have the example of the icon model which is
German one the average model which is a French one I don’t know if there is a
Austrian one and the you see MWF which is a little bit different because this
one it’s not run by a single country it’s done by an European organisation
and also is however but so for this one you have 30 time more scientists 30 time
more computation power so way better results but it goes to 200,000 euro a
year to get the data which is quite big expensive for us so those models are
very good if you want to know what will happen on a regional or national scale
and on your launch on the long-term like in five or ten or fifteen days for the
best models that’s where you get these information but that is not sufficient
because for flying we cannot rely only on national weather we need something
more detailed so we also have regional models so basically it’s like a zoom
okay we got the global forecast and now we will focus on a smaller area and we
will have much higher resolution on this area so of course is still linked to the
global forecast because when you want to forecast what’s happening here you need
to know what is here so it’s always linked but in this model you have
smaller pixels who you have more information more observation in the
initial picture is better and this is for us this is for us if we use this
shorter-term like 1 2 3 days in advance so you we have plenty of those models
available for example you are the Cosmo model which is the I resolution model
run by the German weather Institute the a home is the French one
the I resolution European model this is mine
this is a model run by Mattel blue and when you go on on civil website you you
can find those names and usually it’s the same model which means when you have
the GFS model on window it’s the same forecast then the GFS model on wind
fighter on windy it’s the same for Cosmo or Aram it’s the same model on every
website so you don’t need to cost check yes but when you see the wrf model this
means nothing this is the name of a software and any guy can take this
software put any kind of data into it any kind of settings so you never know
what’s what it is so the WEF model from wind google has nothing to do with the
WEF model from wind finder and those two models they are also using this software
so you know when it’s GFS you see MWF cosmo o—- home it’s the same when it’s
WF you never know what’s behind so well why we need more detailed models it’s
because the global models they run in a scale that is quite big like the pixels
10 or 250 kilometers big and at that scale scale you cannot simulate a lot of
things you can just simulate ok we got air masses they are moving and we have a
big thing coming but that’s all but then if
you if you go to I of resolution so the occasional module I have cited here they
are in one to three kilometer range here you be the model become able to simulate
really local things like the thunderstorms or
Seabreeze Montaigne breeze and so inside those pixel the model will really see
what’s happening okay the air is warmer it will climb okay
next sell its higher it will consume say to a cloud okay now the cloud is going
it turns into a tender storm so this is all simulation into the model it’s
really trying to replicate the real physics of what at what’s happening but
of course the model is not able to to see or details for examples to Mars it’s
something very small the model cannot see that there is a thermal just on the
top of this restaurant but it’s still able to know that probably it’s a good
day for thermals because the local atmosphere is is good and we have some
sunshine so the scale is something really important and for us we need to
be here we cannot rely only on the big models so the big models are for the
global models are for a long-term forecast but then when if you want to
know okay I need to tell my boss I will not work in five days you look at the
global models but then when it’s the d-day you need to you need to go to the
io resolution model to see to know which side of the mountain you want to fly so
this is an example this is the eye of lavinia small French islands if you
look at the GFS model this island doesn’t exist it’s too small it cannot
see the island that you burn windy you tap you type Lorena or you will have a
forecast or another in you and some plenty of guys are flying looking at
those forecast but then if you go higher resolution the island become visible and
the Eyre is the resolution the best it will be described both fuzzy topography
but also for the land use which is okay here there is a bitch its water and of
course this is the more detailed is the picture the best we can simulate local
effects like the breeze if there’s no island there’s no place so for example
this is the Alps as seen by different models so for the GFS model and big
global model the herbs are a small hill and when you go to more details the
valley become visible if they are wide enough so if we have two point five
kilometer resolution pixels if your valley is bigger than two point five we
will see it if it’s smaller the the tofu topography will be averaged so that’s
always something you need to keep in mind so that’s why I have I’m running
since 2012 very high resolution model so until a few months ago it was only
covering fast and the Alps and a small part of Austria and now I expanded this
model to most of Europe and this is something really unique
because okay the French guys they don’t want the French weather Institute they
have no interest of canoeing i resolution forecast ear just cost money
and no benefits for them and the german guy is the only compute for germany so
it’s the first time we have such a big model and also getting giving us longer
forecast because if you are just a meteorologist you don’t need to have a
long-term resolution forecast because it’s considerate as bad science so the
more guy solution you get the more noise you get so over the time
forecasters are bad but for us we cannot think like like the meteorologists guys
because we are not meteorologists we we are not interested by meteorology we are
interested by ecology so we need to know which side of the mountain we want to go
and for this we need a model that can see the mountain so that’s so okay I’m
doing three days forecast at very high resolution it’s not scientifically
accurate but for us it’s much better than having a model that cannot see
small things so you will not find something else elsewhere this is a quick
example the map of the terminals are hate in the evening and the mode you can
see that the the cities are yellow because the Sun was eating the cities so
at night the concrete is warmer and there is still some heat here oh you
have a my native place so the spot of the coup pica is here and you can see
that the valley is still warm in the evening but also you can compare the you
have the the pixels and you can compare the size of the
excels against the size of the valley and it’s see it’s already a big Valley
here and you can see that the pixels are quite big also even if it’s super high
resolution so it’s always interesting to when you look to the forecast to think
about okay I cannot just rely on the forecast I need to have more to think
more about what the model can see or not you have the lake of fancy and it’s a
famous spot and you can see there’s no thermals
I’m not sure mods here and here we have some but it still the lake just because
the leg at this location it’s not wide enough for the model to see it and
that’s the same for the wind if the valley is big the wind will
follow the valleys but if the valley are too small the wind will just we just
passed and it just like this valley it doesn’t exist so when you when you look
at the forecast in your small values you need to think okay the model is not able
to see it but I can maybe guess then maybe we have a venturi effect so in
this valley I know that the forecast will the real wind will always be a
little bit higher than the forecast but that you have to learn it by yourself
so before you fly it before you go flying you look at the weather you go
flying and then you go back to the forecast see what was trained what you
did what you had while flying and try to to see if there is some local things you
can learn and yes no model can can do it you have to develop it yourself when I’m
doing when say windsurfing I know that for this sport blue and wind Google
means it’s very good but some yeah yeah the the way the way the pixel
are positioned is not exactly the same so that can be make a difference but
mostly on materials area so that’s not what you’re talking about
but then it’s also really depends on what kind of weather we have on some day
some model very good on some of the day it’s not the same model that the top
ones it’s quite the same core I would say but
then it’s when you launch a new things as always improvements to do and so
that’s interesting feedback here I will have a look also I’m now switching to
new input data and it should improve everything I will make an announcement
when it’s so so I take the original forecast and then I have lied the local
topography and land it just like you having a house you know what is the
outside temperature you know what is the architecture insulation and then you can
compute home by home what is the temperature so I take the output of the
global models it gives me where are the air masses and then I compute ok when
this cold air comes to the mountain what happens exactly on a smaller scale so
for this I’m using the WUF software which is the state of the art of the
modeling software deployed by maybe 50 or 100 universities together since 20
years and then yeah I I have some specific
settings for the 4s so it’s not magic or anything it’s just taking data from
serials forecasts putting good software onto it and make nice visualization yeah
yeah the workflow is quite the same yeah exactly that’s the same that’s exactly
the same as a CFD model but we we in we have more thermodynamic things and
weather specific things into it yeah but that’s exactly the same well it’s
it’s it’s all together and then it’s coupled to other things like the land
module ocean model but that’s something else yes yeah 2.5 oh it’s not that much like
1000 wide maybe a little bit more but that’s where actually our models are
quite bad pictures just like you cellphone from 10 years ago and even the
global model he have maybe two or three thousand pixel wide resolution but
that’s really not much 20,000 kilometres way yeah yeah so i’ll it but it’s born
so I was when I was 23 I was working as a wind surf instructor and similar I was
really addicted to everything about wind and I was using window because it’s the
best website for wind surfers and then had a little bit of money I went into
Park lighting and did I destroy a really special time I did like four or five SIV
trainings in three months I was super excited that I burped all my money and
and then I had this problem okay I no longer have my gliding instructor so I
need to find out by myself does it fly or not and there was no window for this
but since I was since I dropped out of school I had quite supportive parents
and I had plenty of free times I told myself okay I will find a way to
to have my data and I found this super WUF software I was super excited like
wow I came on my own model wow this is like porno graffitti for geeks
you know big computer paying with backlighting weather everything so I was
quite happy with this this project and I got a good friend who got me a big
computer from the finance industry like three years old but it was good enough
for me throwing as much electricity as two electric barbecues and producing the
same heat so I had this thing installed in my bedroom at my parents home of
course I didn’t add them for permission before and then it was too late and I ad
for DSL internet lines installed at home just to have sufficient bandwidth to
upload everything so that was the fun time 2012 and this was the beginning of a new
era because until this time some the meteorology guys he had high resolution
models but they only needed to visualize what is happening on a good country
scale but for us this is not sufficient because we wanted to know which side of
the mountain to fly so high add to invent the weather map that you can zoom
in what an innovation so it became instantly super popular in France and
now every French pilots use this website but mostly in France because the
cooperage was fine currents only at that time and now I’ve
expanded and I count on you to go into my church and to covert there are other
people to my church like the G with people looking at you do yeah so so now
it’s a little bit nicer normal model and you got mobile hub it works on every
devices but if you do contribute do it on the website because if you do it
Apple or Google devices you will give 30% to them and not to the project the
super bastard and the French government is chewing Apple right now because of
this and now it’s no longer in my parent bedroom so since I got some contributors
I can afford a professional space in a data center in Paris and just to give
you an idea of what’s behind the forecast you’ll have a look at so just
here you are the equivalent of 40 big gamer computers and this is running for
nine hours to times day to produce the forecast you have you look at so this is
quite big computation and it’s doing exactly the same thing as in the big
computers from the National Weather Service the only difference is they run
it in 10 or 30 minutes it takes nine hours for me but if you do the math it’s
the same amount of computation that’s it so now let’s go to the real subject
about flying I try not to be too long so this so once
you know this you know everything you need about flying weather for flying so
what’s that you can imagine a river when you are in the middle of the river the
weather the water is flowing smoothly but when you go on the edge then the you
are turbulences so this is the same for the atmosphere when you are in the
middle of the atmosphere it’s moving freely nothing no obstacles this is what
we call the free atmosphere and if you go closer to the ground you have a part
on which the ground having influence so this part it’s called the shitty zone so
that’s where we fly so the airline guys they have matter than else they fly here
so no turbulence but we like problems so yeah so this is the boundary layer is
the part of the atmosphere on which the ground I have an impact and this is
super interesting for us because we are always here always so you can imagine we
have a big plastic bag yeah and when there is thermals this plastic bag will
be pushed up when it’s raining it will be pushed down when there is a lot of
winds turbulences it will make some volume so it will be
pushed up also so just by looking at the shape of this boundary layer
you know everything about the weather conditions easy so and you are super lucky because
it’s a yellow thing here so you can click anywhere on the map and have your
information so no more Theory so this for example is
a good thermal day because you can see the sun shining everything got warmer
the thermals pushing up so the top is going help at some point you have some
clouds forming and at the end of the day no more no more to Mars it’s falling
down so just by looking at the shape of this boundary layer of this day you have
a good idea of the thermal activity this is another example which is not so
different but there is a difference so here it was going quite smoothly but if
you look at the other one it’s gaining a lot of altitude very quickly which means
that probably there is something pushing up quite strongly and probably if you
are flying at that time you will be pushed up quite strongly and that’s the
same when you have quick evolutions it’s mean that something quite intense is
happening and the IOT is a stronger are the thermals because it’s mean that
something is pushing stronger so another example very low thermal activity super
strong so this is Morocco I guess okay here we
have something interesting you have North East small northeast wind in the
altitude and when you look at the boundary layer the wind is not the same
it’s East zero then it’s shifting to west getting stronger and fading in the
end of the day so this is the breeze that is simulated by the model so
sometime people asks if the more if the models can include the brace or not
so these ready depends of the pixel size so if so the model make those pixels and
if if the model can see the breeze it will simulate it so if you are in a very
narrow Valley you will not have the pixels are too small but if you are in a
big Valley or if you are in the seaside here you will have some simulation of
the breeze and you can see that this is only happening in the boundary layer
because that’s a part of the atmosphere impacted by the ground another example
of some breeze this is not so good for flying and you’ve got the rain here
so here 2.3 millimeter per hour it’s a much rain did it almost precipitation we
had between 12 and 13 and the interesting thing so we have small
static boundary layer of course at six there is no two miles
it’s built by some turbulence probably and a small thermal activity and at some
point a big cloud is passing by so no more thermal activity no more and
we go back to the turbulence activity we had before and we consider the wind
shifting just because this big cloud it’s acting like a vacuum sphere big
vacuum cleaner and so it’s sucking your air and if you are doing some sailing at
that point and you were smart enough to go close to the cloud you will have wind
your competitor will not have wind and so you win the race nothing really
interesting air so here you have some small clouds in the morning sometimes we
have these on the montane small clouds it gets odds as clouds dissipate then
thermal activity then suddenly a lot of clouds and some rain so probably
something like a thunderstorm here we have a more visible – in this term so
the model at that point where I was able to simulate that ok this cloud has grown
gone enough to to form a thunderstorm and now it’s producing a lot of pain and
a lot of wind so of course that is not because the model as predicted
transistor on this montane at that time that it will be at this place at that
time maybe it will be 10 kilometers away maybe it will be one hour later because
our initial picture it was not good and the math have a lot of simplification
inside but still if you look at something like this you can expect that
the weather conditions are good enough for thunderstorm
to go yeah this is no same and I wanted to show you something before that yeah
that’s not the right picture but sometime you have a situation situation
where the boundary layer looks like this but we have not a lot of wind and we
have a lot of but we have a lot of wind on the top in the free atmosphere but
since the thermal activity is strong it’s pushing up very odd the strong wind
is pushing down very hard but it’s balanced so nothing happens the strong
wind is not able to go inside you’re kind of protected but at some
point in the day the Sun is going down and suddenly the the balance will be
broken and the strong wind will be able to pierce through the boundary layer and
then at that point it can collapse just like that and you can have your at the
day way with no wind and suddently you don’t know why you are 40 kilometers of
wind in 10 minutes so you need to be careful when we are in this bubble we
are kind of protected and if there is something strong we you always have to
think that at some point it could get inside and kill you so that’s it for the
boundary layer I really think that that this graph is enough to see everything
you need if you if you are looking for the wind Google table for bug lighting
images can you explain oh yeah yeah yeah so
this is wind so the arrow is the direction so this is south
this is east and km/h yeah and but I plan to have a picture to set your own
unit one day when I will have some time and then the the color and the size of
the arrows proportional to the speed of wind so you don’t have to hit the number
of just have a look to the colors yeah so here you just have tone wind maybe
because of low pressure high pressure activity sorry I have no idea I’m not a
meteorologist I’m just a computer programmer but since I’ve been doing
this I had understood some few things one pixel yeah so that’s why we have
this split view okay because it’s already interesting to
have both the spatial and the time activity so on every pixel you get you
will click you will have a different graph but usually it’s still quite the
same so you you can just type the name of your sports you can do it this one
yeah so for next time you can remember it and
go to separate head and you just type anything okay so that’s the start of
your forecasting session and then you can have a look on the map see okay I
want to know for example an interesting map is a win in the boundary layer which
means because if you look only at the wind on the ground you don’t see much
because if there there is gradient or something it doesn’t mean a lot if you
look at the winners 1000 meter you only see what’s happening at 1000 meter so
you you have the average wind in the boundary layer so you have a good idea
of what’s happening from ear to ear so for example you can have a look at that
map and see okay it looks quite similar in my place so probably there’s nothing
really different but okay I see here you got the scale here if you click it
expands so okay I have less wind here I can click to see if it’s really
different whether or not okay I have little bit more wind
so it’s interesting if you see the is the same everywhere you can expect to
have the same weather situation but if you see different colors on the map it’s
interesting to see what’s happening because sometime just at the point you
clicked there’s no wind because I don’t know you we’re in the middle of it in
the eye of the hurricane but if you click few kilometers away from there you
have 300 kilometres per hour so that’s always interesting to have a quick look
at what’s happening you have some of your maps for example the speed of the
thermals if there is the mouth it came it’s interesting to compare or to see
for example in the morning which sides will be more the warmer first or not you
can scroll the the time doesn’t process something interesting here it’s a city I
guess oh yeah but the maps it’s I mean most of the details you have it here
just have a quick look at the maps don’t don’t waste too much time yeah the best pleasure is just go to the
takeoff look at the sky okay send someone counts until the collapse and then you know yeah so the map is
more if you need to understand something okay there’s something I don’t know
it’s trench a I want to know what’s happening a to a mm why it’s not the
same color I don’t know so you you can then go to the wind map when it’s blue
here it means you can call the altitude so okay you can scroll and see okay
there’s nothing interesting it’s the same everywhere cool so this is this is
so this speed you will never have it on your value it’s it’s more like an
indicator because tomorrow very small things and okay if you take a 2 point 5
kilometer pixel it will not climb everywhere of course but it’s only
useful to see is it kind of very big average and it really depends on the
local soil conditions but it’s an indicator for you to know which areas
will be more active than other ones if I look at the weather for myself yeah
yeah so so velocity it gives you an idea of if there is thermals you can expect
212 strong or light thermals that’s not but the units are not really good it’s
only an indication and you will learn by yourself that blue at this spot is good
or not no it’s supposed to be in theory but in practice it’s not the sharing is
a ratio between wind speed and thermal speed on the top and wind speed at the
bottom so it can give you ideas if if the thermal will be comfortable or not
to fly when it’s headed turbulent but since it’s a ratio if both are 0 it can
give you very strange results but I don’t really rely on this it’s the most
information you get it from here and only if you want to go more into details
try to understand what’s happening then you can go look at at the maps and boundary layer thickness can be
interesting so this is this thickness because you can see maybe sometimes it’s
really different here you have something for example here and you can so if you
want to look if the weather will be the same everywhere or not and you see
things like this it’s like warning okay why is it more
red here so you click you can click and see what’s happening and you can see
that probably it’s done do some activity that’s why it’s really different cause
and that those maps and sailings the top of the banner earlier it’s also an
interesting map because it’s quite related to the top of the thermals it’s
not exactly the top of the thermal maybe you can’t fly you will never fly up to
this altitude but at the lower altitude because ears or thermal or 0 and you are
seeking down and 1 meter per second so maybe you will fly up to there but it
gives you an idea and some days it’s quite everywhere someday most welcome
for the thing every german pilots is it only we all see also control things so
you will have it that’s something I have all the data I need for this I need the
time missing so you will have this if granted yeah
that’s why it’s interesting to meet people because I never seen this also
controlled things before and every German pilot told me about it yeah so since we are you have a few
things so you can toggle the interpolation on/off it’s interesting
because if you toggle it on it’s a little bit nicer when you zoom in and if
you turn it off you can see the actual pixels so have an idea you to compare
the size of your local things and size of the model you have the exit planer
software so it’s not mine it’s just a tool that was really so a lot of pilots
were using both tools so I just hacked explainer to
to include it here you with the tension of thumb of course so you can just set
your waypoints it will calculate your your score and you can then export it to
your GPS I never use this I I never used this tool but probably you can find a
lot of information about it somewhere and also you got the airspace so it’s
from another project it’s not up to date I never but it’s still interesting to
have okay if you know there is a restricted area there you can have it
with the forecast are just at the same time time and explainer on top and then
you do super big flights and now go back to so you were asking about instability
so for this we have a super tool which is the Emma Graham this is normally for
advanced pillow pilots only so just before this a little theory about
thermals so and more especially what we call the lab straight to dry adiabatic
lapse rate and more at the hibachi club straight so what the global idea is okay
you got some air particles plenty of them because there is a lot of pressure
they are eating there are moving and warming each other but when you go
higher altitude there is less ratios or less particles or less friction so it’s
colder so when the air is totally without anymore
– when you go ten kilometer one kilometer I you lose ten degrees this is
what we call the dry other dry adiabatic lapse rate but when there is some
moisture it cools at a different speed which is a little bit slower and this is
very important for us because okay we got an atmosphere at 24 degree for
example at the ground and some sun hitting something okay your car it
setting up and so the air will be a little bit warmer at some point a bubble
will figure and this bubble it will it will cool down when it’s going help and
it will cool down following the theory and so if it’s cooling down at the same
temperature it will always clamp it both the atmosphere and the bubble is cooling
down at the same rate the Bible with all way climb up always climb but but if if
it’s not like the theory because the atmosphere is never like the TV just
like when you are swimming in the lake sometimes there is cold or hot streams
it’s the same in the atmosphere so maybe it’s cooling down slower and if at some
point the temperature of the bubble and the temperature of the atmosphere as the
same the bubble is no more climbing and if the air is cooling very very slowly
then you can not have any thermal its stable so for this we have the Emma
Graham so let’s crush it away right now so real Emma Graham is this there’s a
lot of things everywhere it just burns the eyes
so so this is this is for meteorologists guys with pressure logarithmic scale
plenty of things so when I wanted to do immigrants on me to purple I never been
able to plot one so I went to something easier that’s why I just said okay let’s
put some meters let’s have a simple temperature scale so basically an
amalgam is a graph of the temperature of the air against the altitude and it’s
the curve you have you have you have on the right and but the altitude scale
it’s not it’s not vertical it’s its ear so zero degree is mainstem so and what I
did is that I put this dry adiabatic lapse rate vertical coordinate and
that’s very useful for us because this is the theory of dry air bubble climbing
up and so when D and so well so if the atmosphere where was perfect and there
was no moisture the this curve will be here but since we have an imperfect
atmosphere yeah we have something different so when it’s red it means that
we are on the left so when it’s 10 right it means the
atmosphere is cooling very fastly and so your air bubble it have more chances to
stay warmer this is very unstable when it’s green it’s cooling you are on the
right side but quite close to 2 z vertical it means that depending of the
moisture of the air it will be in stable or not if it’s very dry it will be
stable but if there is moisture it will be in stable and when you are black it
means that in any condition even with one pass 100% humidity the air is stable
so of course the this this is the potential for instability of your
atmosphere it doesn’t mean that because it’s kind of every where you will have a
thermal because for adding a thermal you need first to have in stable atmosphere
but you also need to have some Sun if there’s no Sun no bubbles or not amount
so it’s much easier to read clothes then those curves and I don’t think you need
to know much more and you also have another curve the blue curve which is
the dew point so basically if we take one air particular here we call it down
at which temperature should we cool it down to add conversation so when the air
is very dry no moisture you will have to go very cold temperature to have
conversation and when there is a lot of humidity a small temperature difference
will make converse conversation and it when it’s the same
when it’s touching you have conversation so you have a cloud and for example when
you are in Caribbean island your other beer
it’s always very wet because there’s a lot of humidity in the air and your beer
is a small temperature difference makes the conversation so this is very useful
graph for us because we can instantly see what is the moisture what is the
instability of the air and just to give you an example this is the wet adiabatic
so when there is 100 percent moisture you you see it’s not vertical it’s a
little bit curvy that’s not really important first so I will just show you
a few examples of Emma Graham I’m not an immigrant expect myself and there is
plenty of resources about the Emma Graham on the internet so just go google
immigrant backlighting and you will have plenty of information yeah I give you
all these very basics so now you can read this thing so I just showing some
quick examples you have some instability it match the boundary layer here you
have another example with a small stable portion so this is not an inversion
layer because if you follow this isotherm line it means that the the
temperature is the same when you climb up so an inversion
is when the temperature is no more cooling but getting warmer with the
altitude so when there is an inversion the curve is at the right of the isoterm yeah so you have different example yeah
we can see that it’s unstable but it doesn’t the boundary layer is still a young altitude because probably the
Berbers had gained some speed and it doesn’t stop instantly it still has some
momentum so it’s no more gaining speed it gets slowed but it can still climb
back a little bit but then if you go to the ocean articles you will be able to
learn that depending of the shape of the global chain you can recognize good
conditions favorable condition for other developments things like this when it’s
flat it’s not the same that when it’s have a same timer shape for example but
I will not go into this I don’t know this another example here it’s
interesting you have two air masses so here it’s quite it’s quite dry and you
have it’s quite wet and you have a different wind and incidentally you have
dry hair and different wind speed they are very you made they’re very
cloudy there’s no cloud here but you can expect to have some because the model
it’s not perfect if you have clouds everywhere here it’s very big tomorrow
the super big here you have a cloud you have thermal
activity and then a cloud on the top this is a situation you will see in the
morning when you you have those low clouds and they will disappear and
that’s it just a few more things with with the Emma Graham which is
interesting so you get it there you can click anywhere get an immigrant but what
is also interesting is – Skaal the time and see the evolution of the Emma Graham
of Earth Day it’s a good tool for for learning and so so so yeah when I first
launched this website the idea is just to have a tool for having weather for
pilots I wanted this to be 100% free I was like a young Communist guy and at
some point I got people going crazy like ok I went to your free with your website
and I Drive and it was not flying the weather was bad so fuck you yeah and later I had a real job I
discovered that the time is not free so at some point I introduced contribution
system so the idea is I want to build a tool that is a tool for the community
which is really for everyone not only for the top pilots Avenger the beginner
pilot he needs some weather information and we must be able to provide some so
the idea is this website is almost free on large part of the time so you can
experiment with it but a few days so one day every Twitter is blocked so it just
I give you at work when you come out of school and it’s free and then you want
to go to your big flying day on Saturday and you know you have to pay a little
bit but it’s really more symbolic like okay I really see it’s in January this
is my only job and because I really want to dedicate a lot of time to make this
tool better and to improve it but it is not really a business if I want money I
can just get to the industry on five time more money but this is cool both
for making because it is quite useful website but also because it’s really
interesting for me to work both with weather big computers by gliding and
have you know weather and computing world in it never met before that’s
really different worlds worlds and so we can end everything up to be invented
that’s why it’s so cool and that’s why to permit me to do this
and to pay for the servers I asked for a small contribution which is the price of
a beer every mouth so every pilot can have access to it not only top
competitors paying a lot of money yeah because you know when you go on the
internet there is a lot a lot a lot of websites for the weather you never know
hey Li what’s behind so there is some main ones we are metal blue windy wind
guru and some others but no park lighting it’s a very small world and if
we want a quality thing for our activity we cannot just we have to invest into it
because for example wind Gugu it’s it’s a tool for every everyone folk used
about the wind so this is a very big community we have millions of visitors
every day so we’ve advertisement it it can survive you have a totally other
business which is windy so windy this is very special this guy the guy behind
windy is the main competitor of Google in Czech Republic 50% market share says
none so this guy I was in East asking him ok you got a Tesla what is the range
it told me I don’t know when I go out of the city I take my helicopter not an
ultra light a real one and and so he is buying the 200,000 euro year model we
have a team of 10 developers and is giving everything for free so I’m very
happy he is not into the paragliding world because if he if he was
it would be useless for me to try to continue here and and for example I
would never do a website for kitesurfing or more other activities
the only reason why Park lighting is so interesting is because we need very
special weather and I want to build a tow a tool to to focus on our activity
for example later improving the forecast using our exit hack our X a GPS logs
these things windy or when Google will never do it because it’s too small niche
yeah so if you want to help there’s plenty of things you can do you can talk
about the website get more users if I have so most of my users are French now
but if I have as much German then pilots than French pilots using the website I
can either a full-time developer just to work on this project I don’t know how
many pilots there is in Austria but you you have a whole to play here but also
your feedback is really important both for the quality of the folk art but also
about the features and that’s why I am meeting you but even when you you will
go home and have new ideas there is a forum we can we can exchange ideas on
the forum or you can send me an email and also when you go flying just send
your talks to X a contest so later I will be able to steal them and this is super valuable information for
us because we have plenty of weather stations but this is useless for us what
we need is to have data real data about what’s happening in altitude and the
only data we have is your tax so if you if we want to improve the forecast
improve the visualization or anything we need your data

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